T10YL - 2014 NFL Draft, Part 3
2nd and 3rd round pick trades from the 2014 NFL Draft
This is part two of our NFL Draft coverage. The expectation was that this would be a three-part series but it’s going to end up being four. Maybe five, but hopefully not. If you’re just joining us, an explanation to what we’re doing can be found in the prior posts:
TRADE EIGHT
The Traded Picks: St. Louis Rams receive: #41 overall. Buffalo Bills receive: #44 overall, #153 overall.
Pick Trade Value (Rich Hill): Rams receive: 146. Bills receive: 135 + 11 = 146.
Even trade.
Pick Trade Value (Fitzgerald-Spielberger): Rams receive: 1118. Bills receive: 1082 + 451 = 1533.
Surplus value accumulated by Buffalo (415) roughly equivalent to a late 5th-round pick (#164 = 416)
We have (by the Rich Hill model) our second perfectly even trade! This one feels more like a matter of convenience; if somebody wants to move up three spots in the early-mid 2nd-round, a 5th-round pick feels like a fair price. Fortunately, the numbers worked nicely here.
The Selected Players: St. Louis Rams select: Lamarcus Joyner. Buffalo Bills select: Cyrus Kouandjio and Cyril Richardson
We’ve been discussing the players in selection order and will continue that convention, but I’d be remiss to not immediately point out that Buffalo picked a Cyrus and Cyril with these picks (this joke won’t work on audio).
Even though he had been drafted as a safety, Lamarcus Joyner spent his first three seasons as a valuable depth member of the Rams’ secondary from the nickelback position. For his fourth year, the team transitioned him back to safety and he had his best season yet, making Pro Football Focus’s 2nd-team All-Pro team. The Rams used their franchise tag to retain Joyner for the 2018 season, effectively creating their own fifth-year option. Joyner and the Rams went to the Super Bowl that season and then he left to sign a contract with the Oakland Raiders.
Cyrus Kouandjio was an offensive tackle selected out of Alabama right around the time when it became a perpetually good choice to select whichever offensive tackle was draft-eligible from Alabama that year. Kouandijio was more of a depth tackle with Buffalo and only started a few games in his first three seasons with the team. He grew into a more pronounced role in 2016 and was expected to compete for the starting right tackle job in 2017, but the offseason went about as badly as it could go. In January, he fell in the shower and injured his hip, ultimately requiring surgery. Then, in April, Kouandijio was found naked (or at least “undressed”) in a field at 9:22 in the morning by Erie County sheriff’s deputies, who administered first aid. Rumors held that this was consistent with the effects of spice/K2, a much-maligned synthetic drug that made this genre of story surprisingly common until a few years ago, when its use seems to have stopped without anybody noticing.
Cyril Richardson played one season with the Bills as a backup guard, though he did start a few games. He spent the next year on the practice squad, then spent time on the Bears’ practice squad, then had AAF and XFL stints before his football career ended in 2020. I can’t find any potential spice/K2 incidents in Richardson’s past, but the Rams still won this trade.
TRADE NINE
The Traded Picks: Philadelphia Eagles receive: #42 overall. Tennessee Titans receive: #54 overall, #122 overall.
Pick Trade Value (Rich Hill): Eagles receive: 142. Titans receive: 104 + 22 = 126.
Surplus value accumulated by Philadelphia (16) equivalent to an early 5th-round pick (#135-137).
Pick Trade Value (Fitzgerald-Spielberger): Eagles receive: 1106. Titans receive: 979 + 565 = 1544.
Surplus value accumulated by Tennessee (438) equivalent to a mid 5th-round pick (#157)
The Selected Players: Philadelphia Eagles select: Jordan Matthews. Tennessee Titans select: Bishop Sankey, Marqueston Huff.
We at Trades Ten Years Later would like to extend a formal apology to Jordan Matthews, who was unfairly identified as a “bust” two posts ago when discussing Brandin Cooks. In fact, Jordan Matthews put up as much AV for the Eagles as Cooks did for the Saints, catching at least 67 passes for at least 800 yards in all three seasons in Philadelphia. Sure, he wasn’t going to be confused with the very best receivers in this draft, but he was probably a better draft pick than Sammy Watkins, among others. After three years, he was traded to the Bills with a 3rd-round pick in exchange for Ronald Darby. Matthews would later return to the Eagles on two occasions, which is about where he slipped off my radar, but shockingly, Matthews spent time on an NFL active roster in 2023 as a Carolina Panthers tight end (apparently he is a tight end now).
At #54, the Titans made Bishop Sankey the first running back selected in the 2014 NFL Draft, the latest teams had ever gone without drafting a running back. He played about 1.5 solid seasons for the Titans and then fell off the radar, only rushing the ball eight times in his career after Week 5 of his second season. Marqueston Huff spent two seasons in Tennessee, mostly playing on special teams. His NFL career highlight was intercepting an Eli Manning pass and returning it 23 yards for a touchdown. The Titans were losing 30-0 at the time and Huff’s touchdown provided their only points of the game.
TRADE TEN
The Traded Picks: San Diego Chargers receive: #50 overall. Miami Dolphins receive: #57 overall, #125 overall.
Pick Trade Value (Rich Hill): Chargers receive: 115. Dolphins receive: 96 + 20 = 116.
Surplus value accumulated by Dolphins (1) equivalent to a late 7th-round pick (#241-257).
Pick Trade Value (Fitzgerald-Spielberger): Chargers receive: 1018. Dolphins receive: 951 + 553 = 1504.
Surplus value accumulated by Dolphins (486) roughly equivalent to an early 5th-round pick (#143 = 485).
The Selected Players: San Diego Chargers select: Jeremiah Attaochu. Miami Dolphins select: Walt Aikens, #57 overall subsequently traded.
We’ve already seen a double trade-down this draft, when the Seahawks traded from #32 to #40 and then moved from #40 to #45 before making a pick. The Dolphins must have been inspired to do the same, dropping from #50 to #57 and then moving back further in a few more paragraphs.
Jeremiah Attaochu goes by Jerry according to his Twitter account. Attaochu started his career on a great note, recording a sack and forcing a fumble in his first career game against the Arizona Cardinals. He had his biggest impact on the Chargers in 2015, when he started 12 games and had a couple of multi-sack performances. In 2016, he missed time with a sprained ankle and returned just in time to break his foot on his first game back, ending his season early. He never really reintegrated into the Chargers’ plans, but bounced around the NFL for a few more seasons, closing things out with two games as a fringe member of the Chargers defense in 2022.
Walt Aikens started his college career at the University of Illinois, but was almost immediately kicked off the team after he was busted in a sting operation trying to sell electronics that had been stolen from dorm rooms to an undercover campus police officer. He transferred to Liberty University, which was just starting to build its reputation as college football’s sanctuary for the previously disgraced. Aikens was drafted by the Dolphins as a defensive back but generally contributed on special teams rather than on defense. Designating a player as a “special teamer” rather than as a member of the offense or defense can often be perceived as a slight, but Aikens was a key contributor to the third side of the ball over six years with the Dolphins, serving as special teams captain in his final season. This is a good outcome for a 4th-round draft pick.
Green Bay Packers select Davante Adams #53 overall.
TRADE ELEVEN
The Traded Picks: Denver Broncos receive: #56 overall, #242 overall. San Francisco 49ers receive: #63 overall, #171 overall, 2015 4th round pick (became #126 overall).
Pick Trade Value (Rich Hill): Broncos receive: 98 + 1 = 99. 49ers receive: 82 + 9 + 20 = 111.
Surplus value accumulated by 49ers (12) equivalent to a mid 5th-round pick (#148-151).
Pick Trade Value (Fitzgerald-Spielberger): Broncos receive: 960 + 218 = 1178. 49ers receive: 900 + 394 + 549 = 1843.
Surplus value accumulated by 49ers (665) roughly equivalent to late 3rd / early 4th-round pick (#100 = 666).
San Francisco had received #56 overall from Kansas City as compensation from the Alex Smith trade. The pick was conditional and would’ve been a third, but ended up being a second because Kansas City won eight games in 2013. The 49ers were already set to pick at #61 and could afford to get clever here. They were able to pick up a current 5th-round pick and future 4th-round pick to slide back seven spots, throwing in their own back-end 7th-rounder to even things out. Put a pin in this conversation; we’ll be picking it up shortly.
The Selected Players: Denver Broncos select: Cody Latimer, Corey Nelson. San Francisco 49ers select: Mike Davis (in 2015), #63 overall and #171 overall subsequently traded.
Besides Sammy Watkins, giving up significant assets to trade up for Cody Latimer (with Davante Adams taken three spots earlier) is the most painful wide receiver transaction of this draft. Latimer only caught two passes in his rookie season, then six in his second year, then eight in the following year. Ahead of the 2016 season, he called the police to report domestic violence after his girlfriend “put her hands on him” during an argument. While responding to Latimer’s call, the police noted that he had an outstanding warrant in connection with an unpaid traffic ticket and arrested him. He had his best year with the Broncos in 2017 ahead of free agency – unfortunately for all parties, that consisted of 19 catches for 287 yards. Latimer’s NFL career ended after 2019, but he is currently playing for the San Antonio Brahmas of the UFL, where he has 28 catches for 230 yards at time of press.
The acquisition of Corey Nelson softened the blow somewhat, as he was an effective member of the Broncos defense throughout his rookie contract. Rather than focusing on his professional career, I will quote the final blurb on his Wikipedia page (under the heading “Comedic Mixup”). I don’t think it will make sense, but rest assured that it doesn’t make sense in context either:
In January 2021, a link to the small YouTube channel "Corey NELSON" (Not the NFL player), a 15 year old boy, was mistakenly posted in place of a link to the real Corey Nelson's twitter. It is unknown how this mistake was made, but it brought comedic value. However, over time this brought attention to the small channel, getting the unknown schoolboy to 1.3K views at one point.
The 49ers ended up trading all the compensation they received from Denver except for the 2015 4th-round pick, which was used on Mike Davis. Davis had a good career as an NFL running back, but unfortunately basically all of that production came after leaving San Francisco. Let’s continue to conceptualize this as just a “future 4th-round pick,” it makes the next trade more impressive.
TRADE TWELVE
The Traded Picks: San Francisco 49ers receive: #57 overall. Miami Dolphins receive: #63 overall, #171 overall. Net effect in combination with our previous trade is that the 49ers get a future Broncos 4th-rounder in exchange for moving down one spot (and their 7th-round pick).
Pick Trade Value (Rich Hill): 49ers receive: 96. Dolphins receive: 82 + 9 = 91.
Surplus value accumulated by 49ers (5) equivalent to a mid-late 5th-round pick (#195-203).
Pick Trade Value (Fitzgerald-Spielberger): 49ers receive: 951. Dolphins receive: 900 + 394 = 1294.
Surplus value accumulated by Dolphins (343) roughly equivalent to mid 6th-round pick (#189 = 344).
Fitzgerald-Spielberger would surely be more forgiving if their chart were able to look at San Francisco’s previous trade with Denver at the same time as this trade with Miami and rationalize this as a comprehensive move to slide down one draft spot in exchange for a future 4th-round pick. That’s undeniably savvy business that only looks unfavorable here because we’re isolating on the “trade back up” half of it. It’s especially savvy when the only player you miss out on by trading down is Cody Latimer.
Both sides look good for the 49ers from the Rich Hill perspective. Combining the two trades gives a surplus value of 17 points in draft compensation; the 2015 4th-rounder is worth 20 points, but there are taxes imposed via the 7th-round pick sent to Denver in the trade down (1 point) and the loss of value in moving from #56 to #57 (2 points). One of the best ways to consistently draft well is to consistently make moves that net you future picks for free.
The Selected Players: San Francisco 49ers select: Carlos Hyde. Miami Dolphins select: Jarvis Landry, Jordan Tripp.
Doesn’t it always seem like the 49ers keep a talented running back just to have as a spare? That practice may have kicked off a decade ago, when the 49ers used a 2nd-round pick to put Carlos Hyde in a backfield headlined by Frank Gore and featuring talents like Marcus Lattimore, Kendall Hunter, and LaMichael James. All of these guys except for Hyde were off the team by the start of the 2015 season and Hyde gradually took over as the lead running back in San Francisco. Hyde’s career in San Francisco was as turbulent from a scheme perspective as could be imagined, with four head coaches (Jim Harbaugh, Jim Tomsula, Chip Kelly, and Kyle Shanahan) in four seasons. Hyde left the 49ers after his rookie contract and then never stayed with a team for more than one season in the four remaining seasons of his NFL career, so he went the whole time without having the same head coach in consecutive seasons.
Carlos Hyde is a good player, but the Dolphins got a better one after trading down. Jarvis Landry quickly distinguished himself as one of the best pure pass catchers in the NFL, with 84 catches in his rookie season and more in every Miami season thereafter. In his final season with the Dolphins, he caught an NFL-leading 112 passes and made his third consecutive Pro Bowl. In a strong WR draft class, Jarvis Landry was certainly among the top 5 careers (the bottom of the top 5, but still). He left for Cleveland after his contract expired and made a couple more Pro Bowls there too.
Jordan Tripp played one season in Miami and was then cut. He is the only NFL player in the history of Missoula’s Big Sky High School. In spite of this, it doesn’t appear that he’s in the top 10 of any of the school’s football records, which are available online but seem incomplete.
TRADE THIRTEEN
The Traded Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars receive: #61 overall. San Francisco 49ers receive: #70 overall, #150 overall.
Pick Trade Value (Rich Hill): Jaguars receive: 86. 49ers receive: 70 + 12 = 82.
Surplus value accumulated by Jacksonville (4) equivalent to late 6th-round pick (#204-214).
Pick Trade Value (Fitzgerald-Spielberger): Jaguars receive: 917. 49ers receive: 847 + 461 = 1308.
Surplus value accumulated by San Francisco (391) equivalent to late 5th-round pick (#172).
The 49ers continue to star in our production. After making the selection of Carlos Hyde four picks earlier, the 49ers were happy to move down nine spots and pick up a 5th-round pick.
The Selected Players: Jacksonville Jaguars select: Allen Robinson. San Francisco 49ers select: Marcus Martin, Aaron Lynch.
The Jaguars were looking for a comprehensive revitalization of their offense. After selecting Blake Bortles with their 1st-round pick and wide receiver Marqise Lee with their 2nd-round pick, they used their 3rd and 5th-round picks to move up and select Allen Robinson out of Penn State as their second receiver of the round. The 2014 Jaguars provided a great example that draft position is only moderately predictive – Allen Robinson proved to be a more effective NFL receiver than Marqise Lee and caught more passes than him in their rookie season and the next three seasons thereafter. But both were outproduced in their rookie seasons by Allen Hurns, another rookie who signed with the team as an undrafted free agent. Isn’t it crazy how bad NFL teams are at this process?
Robinson’s career in Jacksonville was great even as he was hamstrung by an ineffective quarterback. It ended unfortunately when he tore his ACL in Week One of the 2017 season. The Jaguars would go on to have their best season in decades in spite of a weak offense, advancing to the AFC Championship game before losing in close and controversial (DEEPLY DEEPLY FRAUDULENT) fashion. It might’ve been nice to have their #1 wide receiver!
Marcus Martin was a center who seemed to switch off with Daniel Kilgore as starter throughout his time in San Francisco. After a season-ending ankle injury in his third year, Martin was waived and spent the next three seasons either inactive or on a practice squad somewhere. In 2020, NFL teams had a desperate need for healthy bodies in the midst of a pandemic, so Martin was able to reactivate his career with game action for the Detroit Lions and New England Patriots. Then the pandemic generally ended, along with Martin’s NFL career.
Aaron Lynch was basically a rotational edge rusher for the 49ers who played his largest role for the team in the 2015 season. After his contract expired, he spent two seasons with the Chicago Bears, then signed with the Jaguars before the 2020 season. In August of that year, he announced his retirement, but ultimately returned to the team two months later and played the final eight games of the season. That sure seemed like the end of his NFL career, until LITERALLY TODAY, when he was listed as the only veteran participant in the Miami Dolphins’ 2024 rookie minicamp.
ROUND THREE
TRADE FOURTEEN
The Traded Picks: Miami Dolphins receive: #67 overall. Oakland Raiders receive: #81 overall, #116 overall.
Pick Trade Value (Rich Hill): Dolphins receive: 75. Raiders receive: 55 + 25 = 80.
Surplus value accumulated by Oakland (5) equivalent to a mid-late 5th-round pick (#195-203).
Pick Trade Value (Fitzgerald-Spielberger): Dolphins receive: 869. Raiders receive: 773 + 591 = 1364.
Surplus value accumulated by Oakland (495) roughly equivalent to early 5th-round pick (#140 = 496)
Unlike the 49ers, who traded back to space their picks out, Miami traded up to make a selection four picks after drafting Jarvis Landry.
The Selected Players: Miami Dolphins select: Billy Turner. Oakland Raiders select: Gabe Jackson, Keith McGill.
The two most important players in this trade are offensive linemen, which is not what you want as an author when you’re writing about trade #14 out of 27 and you’re already 10,000 words in. Both linemen are still active, too. Fortunately, distinguishing between their success as draft picks is easier than it seems.
The Dolphins drafted Billy Turner, who had started at left tackle for the North Dakota State Bison. Turner played sparingly in 2014, then started at right guard for much of the 2015 season. In 2016, he was pressed into two starts at left tackle after starter Branden Albert experienced an illness that caused him to lose 12 pounds (this sounds unpleasant for anyone, but especially problematic for an offensive lineman). In Turner’s second start against the Titans, Ryan Tannehill was sacked six times on just 24 dropbacks, which tends to reflect poorly on your left tackle. That week, Turner and fill-in left guard Dallas Thomas were both cut from the team as punishment for their terrible performance. The Dolphins probably gave up on him a bit too soon, as Turner has had a productive NFL career since then.
The Raiders took Gabe Jackson, who became their starter at left guard nearly immediately. He eventually switched to right guard and locked down the position for the Raiders through 2020, signing a 5-year, $56 million contract extension along the way. Tucker probably had a lot of meaningful highlights across his seven years as a starter for the Raiders, but he was a guard, so all I’m left with is the 2017 incident where he managed to get himself ejected due to a fight between Michael Crabtree and Aqib Talib (Tucker shoved an official to earn his ejection).
The Raiders already won the trade down, but also picked up a worthwhile contributor at defensive back in Keith McGill. He even scored a touchdown in his rookie year when he picked up a Peyton Manning pass deflected behind the line of scrimmage by Justin Tuck. His “personal life” on Wikipedia consists of (1) streaming Fortnite on Kick under the username IceCreamMan and (2) allegedly scamming a fan who was attempting to purchase two Raiders tickets (the fan only received one ticket, which ended up being invalid).
Cleveland Browns select Christian Kirksey #71 overall.
San Francisco 49ers select Chris Borland #77 overall.
TRADE FIFTEEN
The Traded Picks: Houston Texans receive: #83 overall. Philadelphia Eagles receive: #101 overall, #141 overall.
Pick Trade Value (Rich Hill): Texans receive: 52. Eagles receive: 34 + 14 = 48.
Surplus value accumulated by Houston (4) equivalent to late 6th-round pick (#204-214).
Pick Trade Value (Fitzgerald-Spielberger): Texans receive: 761. Eagles receive: 661 + 492 = 1153.
Surplus value accumulated by Philadelphia (392) roughly equivalent to late 5th-round pick (#172 = 391)
The Selected Players: Houston Texans select: Louis Nix. Philadelphia Eagles select: Jaylen Watkins, Taylor Hart.
Louis Nix had been discussed as a potential draft pick for the Texans at pick #33. When he fell to pick #83, the Texans were happy to trade up and take the pick that the Eagles had received in exchange for the pick that became Johnny Manziel. Our discussion of that trade let slip that Louis Nix compiled 0 AV in his career, but didn’t reveal the circumstances. Nix’s draft slide stemmed from a knee injury that impacted his senior year at Notre Dame, originally announced as knee tendonitis and ultimately resulting in surgery on his meniscus. But after he was drafted, Nix’s knee required another surgery. A few weeks into the season, Nix underwent a third surgery on the knee and was ultimately released from the Texans before he got into any games. He played 22 snaps on defense and 16 snaps on special teams for the Giants in 2015 and that was it for his NFL career.
Both Jaylen Watkins and Taylor Hart actually played games for the Eagles, though just barely in Hart’s case – he got action in 14 games during his rookie season before being released ahead of his second season. That was worth 1 AV. Jaylen Watkins was generally a special teams player in Philadelphia, peaking at a 38% snap share on defense during his third season. That was worth 3 AV across his four seasons in Philadelphia. These are not the NFL careers that children dream of or front office executives imagine for their draft picks, but we’re getting to the point in the draft where these are solid outcomes.
Carolina Panthers select Trai Turner #92 overall.
TRADE SIXTEEN
The Traded Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars receive: #93 overall. New England Patriots receive: #105 overall, #179 overall.
Pick Trade Value (Rich Hill): Jaguars receive: 42. Patriots receive: 32 + 8 = 40.
Surplus value accumulated by Jacksonville (2) equivalent to a mid 7th-round pick (#229-240).
Pick Trade Value (Fitzgerald-Spielberger): Jaguars receive: 703. Patriots receive: 642 + 371 = 1013.
Surplus value accumulated by New England (310) equivalent to late 6th-round pick (#202).
The Selected Players: Jacksonville Jaguars select: Brandon Linder. New England Patriots select: Bryan Stork, Jon Halapio.
Presumably what happened is that the Jaguars wanted to select an interior offensive lineman, watched the top prospects get selected throughout the third round, and then pulled the trigger to trade up after Trai Turner was taken at #92. Brandon Linder was an immediate starter for the Jaguars at right guard and would’ve kept his job in 2015 if not for a season-ending shoulder injury after three games. In 2016, he transitioned to play center and immediately graded as one of the best in the league at the position. He held down the center position for the Jaguars through the 2021 season, starting at center for the start of the franchise’s Trevor Lawrence era. He was a career-long Jaguar and retired after the season.
The Patriots took a pure center in Bryan Stork, who started for the Patriots as a rookie but had his career cut short after a couple of seasons due to multiple concussions. Jon Halapio didn’t make the roster and was waived from the Patriots in preseason. He bounced from practice squad to practice squad over the next three seasons and ultimately debuted for the New York Giants in 2017. He was a member of the team until 2019, when he started 15 games for the Giants. After the season ended, Halapio got surgery on his Achilles and did not return to an active roster.
Stay tuned for Part 4 of our series this weekend. Surely we can get through the eleven remaining trades in one more post, right? Surely we aren’t going to need a Part 5, right?